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Chih, Y, Kiazad, K, Zhou, L, Capezio, A, Li, M and D. Restubog, S L (2016) Investigating Employee Turnover in the Construction Industry: A Psychological Contract Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

Du, J, Kim, B and Zhao, D (2016) Cost Performance as a Stochastic Process: EAC Projection by Markov Chain Simulation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Earned value analysis; Cost projection; Stochastic process; Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation; Cost and schedule;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001115
  • Abstract:
    Earned value analysis (EVA) has been widely used in the construction industry for cost prediction at completion. The EVA’s accuracy of early cost projections is low since the method assumes static cost performance during construction. A project’s cost performance is evidenced as a stochastic process. In an effort to improve the EVA’s accuracy of early cost predictions, this work reports a modified method of Markovian simulation cost projection (MSCP). Based on Markov chain simulation, MSCP simulates the probability distribution of the cost performance indicators for each period of a project, and predicts the final cost using the summation of each simulated period cost. The MSCP method is demonstrated and validated through a case study of a real-world power plant project. Data analysis indicates that MSCP improves the prediction accuracy four times higher than EVA. Findings also suggest that MSCP is able to capture erratic changes of cost performance throughout a project’s lifecycle and thus provides better EAC (estimate at completion) predictions and early warnings.

Jung, M, Park, M, Lee, H and Kim, H (2016) Weather-Delay Simulation Model Based on Vertical Weather Profile for High-Rise Building Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

Liu, J, Zhao, X and Yan, P (2016) Risk Paths in International Construction Projects: Case Study from Chinese Contractors. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

Love, P E D, Edwards, D J and Smith, J (2016) Rework Causation: Emergent Theoretical Insights and Implications for Research. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

Lu, W, Zhang, L and Zhang, L (2016) Effect of Contract Completeness on Contractors’ Opportunistic Behavior and the Moderating Role of Interdependence. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

Shen, X, Marks, E, Pradhananga, N and Cheng, T (2016) Hazardous Proximity Zone Design for Heavy Construction Excavation Equipment. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

Siu, M F, Lu, M, AbouRizk, S and Tidder, V (2016) Quantitative Assessment of Budget Sufficiency and Resource Utilization for Resource-Constrained Project Schedules. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

Vashani, H, Sullivan, J and El Asmar, M (2016) DB 2020: Analyzing and Forecasting Design-Build Market Trends. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).

Zhang, S, Zhang, S, Gao, Y and Ding, X (2016) Contractual Governance: Effects of Risk Allocation on Contractors’ Cooperative Behavior in Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(06).